Picture: See It Again winning the Gr 1 Splashout Cape Derby over the course and distance of the WSB Met last year (Image: Wayne Marks)

Written by Mark van Deventer (Cape Racing)

At miserly, 4/10 odds, SEE IT AGAIN will go to post as the shortest priced, World Sports Betting Cape Town MET favourite in many moons. The TWICE OVER gelding trained by former champion jock, Michael Roberts, and ridden by soon-to-retire riding legend, Piere Strydom has a big edge under the Weight-for-Age conditions of this famous G1 over 2000m.

The four-year-old chestnut with an OMR of 132 beat brilliant miler (and now retired) CHARLES DICKENS over this C/D in the Cape Derby of ’23 and went on to run awesome races during the KZN Winter as he matured. He took out the G1 Daily News over 2000m before nearly overcoming an extremely onerous weight assignment in the 2200m Durban July when he ran a gallant second to lighter weighted, older horse, WINCHESTER MANSION.

He’s looked in sharp nick during Summer in the Cape – winning the World Sports Betting Green Point Stakes in December on class alone, then succumbing to the fabulous CHARLES DICKENS in the King’s Plate over what is an inadequate 1600m for a staying type of colt at his best from middle distances upwards.

That observation lays bare his only possible flaw: a slow run “Cape Crawl’ could be an issue if trapped out wide and too far off the pace in the now 12 strong field, after the withdrawal of BLESS MY STARS. Strydom is alert to such a scenario and has overcome those pace/positioning travails often enough in a storied career.

Possible pace-pressers include MONTIEN, a progressive gelding that may love this longer route and can sustain a steady gallop with his lengthy stride. He is around 33/1 to win and Piet Botha’s entry beckons as a nicely priced (9/2) place contender.

20/1 shot, DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE, who won the Cape Guineas in 2021 and ran with great credit in the World Sports Betting Met of ‘22 is trying to come back after a tendon injury and ran a similarly encouraging sort of race to MONTIEN when going handy and beaten over five lengths in the King’s Plate. Both are held safe by SEE IT AGAIN, yet could get the run of the race and hit the frame at big prices.

Justin Snaith has a strong team of “relay runners” against the favourite. Not only does he send out DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE, but Greyville 1900 victor PACAYA; the dramatically progressive MUCHO DINERO; King’s Plate third placed ROYAL AUSSIE and WITHOUT QUESTION also hail from his Phillipi barn.

A change of tactics worked the oracle for ROYAL AUSSIE. Instead of forcing the pace as usual he dropped anchor before rushing home in the King’s Plate. He was however, still 1.25 lengths in arrears of SEE IT AGAIN despite a career-best showing, which puts his chances in perspective.

PACAYA also uses a powerful finish to good effect on the lawn and this TRIPPI gelding has won up to G2 level. It may be significant that he was comfortably outrun though by MUCHO DINERO in the final stages of the Anothonij Rupert Wine Premier’s Trophy over 1800m (as was G1 placed, AT MY COMMAND), suggesting that this fast-developing four-year-old might even be good enough to give SEE IT AGAIN a scare. Flamboyant and confident rider, Grant van Niekerk will again partner MUCHO DINERO.

2023 G2 Premier victor, regularly G1 placed and stiff in last year’s WSB Cape Town MET when held up on the outer, RASCALLION is inconveniently drawn on the wide outside. This will test Bernard Fayd Herbe’s race-riding skills and tactical acumen. RASCALLION lacks the killer turn of foot at this level yet will try his lungs out and might hit the board on his best tries.

AL MUTHANA, who stunned CHARLES DICKENS in the ’23 L’Ormarins King’s Plate may be better over shorter than this ten-furlong trip, so would appreciate a sluggish early tempo. He’s run credibly since delivering that LKP bomb and is too classy (officially rated 126, only six points inferior to SEE IT AGAIN) to throw out completely when constructing single race exotics.

ANFIELDS ROCKET’s overall body of work suggests he could find this a bridge too far. He was noted running on well in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate from miles back after a slow start, but is held by quite a few rivals even on that showing which was one of his better efforts since winning the SA Classic at Turffontein nearly a year ago.

SUGAR MOUNTAIN has hit the frame in 80% of his 21 starts, but faces his sternest test off a relatively humble OMR of 109; WATERBERRY LANE needs to run out of his socks to trouble the scorer based on recent dull runs in the Cape, and WITHOUT QUESTION is yet to regain the spark which saw him get within two lengths of SEE IT AGAIN in the Daily News in May 2023.

SEE IT AGAIN, pace queries notwithstanding, appears to have this race at his mercy. Whether you want to take 4/10 about that eventuality is a personal matter, of course. He will be an almost universal banker in the Picks.

Best of the rest are Snaith’s tag team comprising the seriously scopey dark-horse, MUCHO DINERO; unproven lurker over this trip, ROYAL AUSSIE; PACAYA and DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE, who could well get a saloon passage under Daniel Muscutt.

Longshots that might add value to wider single race exotic plays include MONTIEN, RASCALLION, and AL MUTHANA

Isivunguvungu was beaten by Thunderstruck in his seasonal reappearance on L’Ormarins King’s Plate day but should have come on from that run and can reverse form in the Gr 1 Cape Flying Championship on Saturday (Picture: Wayne Marks)

Written by Mark van Deventer (Cape Racing)

Canny conditioner, Peter Muscutt has targeted G1 Computaform Sprint hero, ISIVUNGUVUNGU at the World Pool Cape Flying Championships, and the muscular speedball by former sprint king, WHAT A WINTER, could gain another G1 honour racing over his favourite 1000m distance.

He was run out of it late by reopposing THUNDERSTRUCK in a seasonal opener three weeks ago, when weak in the market, and should have benefited from that “sighter”. A fully primed and cranked up ISIVUNGUVUNGU, ridden by ace jock, Richard Fourie will be tough to beat, especially if the track continues to play to speed horses down the straight. He is favoured at 16/10.

THUNDERSTRUCK remains a daunting adversary. He was a super juvenile and has trained on to be at the top of his game as a four-year-old, running some big figures while going close in the Golden Horse, Merchants and Mercury Sprint (merely half a length off ISIVUNGUVUNGU). He does tend to hang though, a chink that his main rival will try exploit when the pressure is on, but they remain justifiably close in the betting with THUNDERSTRUCK offered at 22/10.

The only other runner in single figures is DYCE at 9/2. Trainer Lucky Houdalakis deserves full credit for patching up this William Longsword horse who has somehow managed to win six races in a career troubled by injury. The fickle five-year-old sports an equivalent OMR of 130 to ISIVUGUVUNGU. If the assessors are accurate based on his Highveld exploits, DYCE will be right there when it counts.

At the ante-post prices, SURJAY, BEREAVE and RIO QUERARI are next with win probabilities of around 6% -7%. The former is game and consistent, having previously run right upsides of THUNDERSTRUCK and ISIVUNGUVUNGU, so is a slight overlay at 12/1. But he is at his absolute best in stiff sprints rather than 56.6 second dashes – the time recorded by THUNDERSTRUCK over this course and distance in early January.

RIO QUERARI ran second in this G1 race last year, closing ground late to get within a neck of subsequent champion sprinter, GIMME A PRINCE in a sterling effort. He’s not quite been at that level since, and the rising-eight-year-old veteran is a couple of lengths shy of the main protagonists on recent form. This may be the former sprint star’s final outing before a well-deserved retirement.

G2 Diadem Stakes winner, BEREAVE was only .75 lengths off THUNDERSTRUCK recently and ran RIO QUERARI close in a mid-winter sprint. He’s not totally sound so tends to drift about in races while mixing his form, but the 14/1 lurker would be entitled to get into the fray on his peak showings.

Beach Bomb snares Equus Horse Of The Year Princess Calla on the line in the Gr 1 wfa Cartier Paddock Stakes and they now clash again in the Gr 1 wfa City Of Cape Town Majorca Stakes (Picture: Wayne Marks) 

– Written by Mark van Deventer

For much of 2023, there was an aura of invincibility around multiple G1 winner, PRINCESS CALLA, who would beat the fillies virtually every time – regardless of course/distance or pace set up – and put-up bold showings against the colts, too. The highlight was defeating SEE IT AGAIN in the season-ending Champions Cup over 1800m at Hollywoodbets Greyville, which secured her Horse of the Year honours.

However, the six-year-old mare has not been able to sustain such excellence into the New Year. Sean Tarry’s charge got bested by KING REGENT in a season opener sprint, then finished 2.45 lengths off SEE IT AGAIN in the Green Point Stakes, and was out- finished by reopposing three-year-old filly, BEACH BOMB in the Paddock Stakes.

All three those runs are admirable; it’s just that the 11-time winner may no longer be as formidable as she used to be, and her faster-finishing younger adversary, the now dual G1 heroine, BEACH BOMB, is sufficiently talented to pull off a remarkable G1 three-peat.

RED PALACE was held tight in a pocket in that slow run Paddock States which led to her over-racing. She duly faded in the drive, clocking in 2.85 lengths back. A better option may have been to let her stride freely upfront and dictate terms as the leader. Maybe that tactical switch will be applied here and make her tough to pass – after all she raced handy and nearly beat the colts in the Cape Guineas, and only SNOW PILOT could sneak by her.

On recent collateral form, SAARTJIE, HAPPY CHANCE and GOLDEN HOSTESS come into the reckoning. The latter, who has a powerful turn of foot when all parts are in working order, blitzed HAPPY CHANCE in the Diana Stakes, followed by a flop, then a decent sprint, which was over too quickly for the daughter of GOLD STANDARD.

For her part, SAARTJIE just beat HAPPY CHANCE in the Victress Stakes, showing determination to get the nod in the level weights duel. Then, HAPPY CHANCE ran right next to both BEACH BOMB and PRINCESS CALLA in the Paddock Stakes – finishing quicker than the “Princess” but not as devastatingly as the “Bomb”. Brett Crawford’s DYNASTY filly is not the worst 10/1 shot you’ll find.

Another quoted at double digits, SAARTJIE (who missed the Paddock Stakes due to a skin allergy) is also right in this mix. And the expected true pace (RASCOVA coming across from the outer, plus low number draws – DOUBLE GRAND SLAM, GIMME A SHOT, RED PALACE and PRINCESS CALLA – all go best handy) might bring an off-pace runner with top notch form over middle distances, like SAARTJIE, bang into contention too.

ASIYE PHAMBILI blasted home in the 1200m Sceptre Stakes, nearly causing a massive boil over at 33/1 when falling only a neck short of OCTOBER MORN. The race was relatively slow run early on, and they finished in a clustered heap which casts some doubt over the value of the form. Taken literally, that was way better than anything she has shown to date, but even running to her revised official rating of 111 won’t be sufficient in this higher class.

MAKE IT SNAPPY is hard to assess coming back after 364 days off track. She did a remarkable BEACH BOMB type double in 22/23, scoring successively in the Fillies Guineas and Paddock Stakes, before going wrong in the Cape Town MET. It would be a training feat of note by Brett Crawford to bring her back and win a third Grade 1 after such a lengthy spell on the sidelines.

Many punters will anchor 16/10 favourite, PRINCESS CALLA – after all she has repeatedly rewarded her staunch followers. However, a closer dissection of current form suggests she is no standout this time, and a wider spread is advised.

All of HAPPY CHANCE, RED PALACE, GOLDEN HOSTESS, SAARTJIE, BEACH BOMB and maybe even a rejuvenated MAKE IT SNAPPY have legit winning chances in what should be a cracking contest!

The City of Cape Town Majorca Stakes (WFA) (Grade 1) is carded as race 7 at the World Sports Betting Cape Town MET on 27 January – off time 15h25.

Slim Jannie (Photo: Pauline Herman)

CLICK HERE TO WATCH ALISTAIR COHEN, ROBERT BLOOMBERG AND RICHARD FOURIE DISCCISSING THE WSB CAPE TOWN MET MEETING CARD

Street Law wins under a sublime ride by Piere Strydom (JC Photos)

Grant Maroun had a double at Turffontein Inside today.

Maroun goes to eight wins for the season achieved at a strike rate of 11.76%,

Piere Strydom wrote a typically well judged race on the Tony Peter-trained Street Art. He placed hin in the box seat from a good draw of two. The timing of his finishing run was sublime.

Readers, please start sending in your Emperor’s Palace Ride Of The Month suggestions

There are prizes to be won in this competition sponsored by Turf Talk’s official hotel partner, Emperor’s Palace.

Piere Strydom’s ride described above is an example of one that can be nominated for the Emperor’s Palace Ride Of The Month.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH PIERE STRYDOM’S GREAT RIDE ON STREET ART

CLICK HERE FOR THE DETAILS ABOUT EMPEROR’S PALACE RIDE OF THE MONTH COMPO

The great Italian breeder Frederico Tesio was unable to get a nomination to Fairway for his mare Nogara so instead sent her to Fairway’s full brother Pharos. The result was the great Nearco, unbeaten in 14 starts, a champion sire in Great Britain and a sire of sires.

Nearco’s legacy primarily comes from three of his sons, Nasrullah, Royal Charger and Nearctic, although several other sons also sired important winners. In all, more than 100 of Nearco’s sons have stood at stud around the world.

Nasrullah was the first son of Nearco to distinguish himself as a sire, first in England and then in America. Nasrullah’s important sire sons include:

• Grey Sovereign, to whom 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist descends through the Caro sire line
• Red God, whose modern descendants include 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom through the Blushing Groom sire line
• Bold Ruler, eight-time leading sire in the United States, whose descendants include Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew. More recently, Seattle Slew has established a successful sire line that has produced several American classic winners including California Chrome
• Never Bend, sire of Mill Reef, whose modern descendants include Sir Percy and Dalakhani

Royal Charger’s most important son was Turn-To, whose most important sire sons were Halo and Roberto. Halo was the sire of dual classic winner Sunday Silence, who then became the leading sire in Japan from 1995 through 2007. Sunday Silence is the sire of numerous Japanese champions including Deep Impact, and is the grandsire of the top-rated horse of 2014 Just A Way.

Nearctic is principally known as the sire of Northern Dancer, who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before becoming one of the dominant sires of the late 20th century. Northern Dancer sired numerable sons who themselves went on to become outstanding sires, principally Nijinsky, Lyphard, Nureyev, Storm Bird, Danzig and Sadler’s Wells. The Northern Dancer sire line accounts for hundreds of major winners from around the world, particularly in Europe. His modern descendants include Justify, Galileo, Ouija Board, Sea the Stars, Black Caviar, Frankel and Treve.

Several of Nearco’s male-line descendants were ranked among the Top 100 U.S. Racehorses of the 20th Century by The Blood-Horse: #2 Secretariat, #9 Seattle Slew, #10 Spectacular Bid, #18 Cigar, #19 Bold Ruler, #24 Nashua, #31 Sunday Silence, #35 Ruffian, #43 Northern Dancer, #57 Riva Ridge, #58 Slew o’ Gold, #69 Noor, #70 Shuvee, #72 Go For Wand, #76 Lady’s Secret, #82 Miesque, #85 Lure, #86 Fort Marcy, #90 Davona Dale, #95 Bayakoa and #97 Foolish Pleasure.^[11]

Other notable male-line descendants were Ballymoss, Arkle, Never Say Die, Royal Palace, Better Loosen Up, Sir Ivor, Invasor, Wise Dan, and Summer Breeze. Sireline descendants of Nearco include eight of the first nine horses to earn over $10,000,000 in stakes wins. These horses are Deep Impact, Makybe Diva, Narita Brian, Sunline, Symboli Kris S, T M Opera O, Viva Pataca, and Vodka.^[12]

According to France Galop, from 1985 through to 2010, every Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner can trace a bloodline back to Nearco, through his son Nasrullah and / or his grandson Northern Dancer. Including the influence of the daughters from his sire line, it is increasingly rare to find a Thoroughbred without some trace of Nearco in its pedigree. For example, while 2023 Preakness Stakes winner National Treasure comes from the rival Mr. Prospector sire line, in the fifth generation of National Treasure’s pedigree Mr. Prospector’s sire Raise a Native appears twice, while Secretariat (great-grandson of Nearco through Nasrullah and Bold Ruler) and Sir Ivor (great-great-grandson through Royal Charger, Turn-To, and Sir Gaylord) both appear twice and Northern Dancer (grandson through Nearctic) appears three times. Nijinsky (a son of Northern Dancer), Red God (a son of Nasrullah), Bold Bidder (a son of Bold Ruler), and Rich Gift (great-grandson of Nearco through Nasrullah and Princely Gift) each appear once. On the distaff side, Mr. Prospector’s dam Gold Digger is a great-granddaughter of Nearco through Nasrullah and Nashua, Sweet Tooth a great-granddaughter through Nasrullah and On-and-On, and Fairy Bridge a great-great-great-granddaughter through Royal Charger, Turn-To, Hail to Reason, and Bold Reason(and her dam also has a maternal line to Nearco).