Winchester Mansion gets up for a famous victory in the Hollywoodbets Durban July (Candiese Lenferna Photography).
Luck vs the Art of producing champions …….
The Pedigree Obsessor
WINCHESTER MANSION became yet another G1 winner from the world class Drakenstein Stud Farm and this achievement warrants analysis for the lessons and pointers it might offer us.
That Mrs Rupert and Kevin Sommerville make a formidably professional executive team at the magnificently situated Franschhoek establishment is beyond question. Furthermore, that this Stud started with just 12 horses some 20 odd years ago when the Rupert family acquired the Farm is a story that commands recording for future benefit. Drakenstein is today a world-class Stud Farm of jaw-dropping beauty. The public observation is one of a deep-seated humility, pride, unwavering commitment and an undeniable passion.
Many might argue that having the funding, quality of stock and the facilities they do explains the recipe for their success. However one cannot deny that that conclusion belies fair explanation given that just about everything is relative. In the Drakenstein context those 3 success recipe factors carry an inordinately higher expectation of success.
To the horse under discussion – He is by the outstanding sire Trippi out of a broodmare called Sea Point who has previously produced a Grade 1-winning sprinter by the stamina-influential sire Twice Over.
To the observer who understands a fair bit about pedigree this progeny is an unlikely middle distance champion of the highest order, but now a July winner nevertheless. Near-Pedigree believers will be scratching their heads to find the answer because it’s hard to find. In the deeper pedigree it is also not abundantly evident where the magic originates from, although there seems to be a deeper reason than close up. Some may suggest that this horse is the freakish produce of a “chance’ mating.
Mrs Rupert and Kevin Sommerville are exceptional breeders who have an admirable record and an obviously and proven deep understanding of their trade. To suggest WM was the result of a chance mating would be an insult to their professionalism as well as those in the know and must therefore be summarily dismissed.
That there is luck involved in breeding is not up for debate, it is generally accepted that a healthy dash of luck is always required. In the case of WINCHESTER MANSION however it is a very different kind and dose of luck.
Not destined to be retained by Drakenstein and whilst being prepped for the Sales he cavorted headlong into a post and broke a vertebra in his neck. That should have been racing game over for the young fella.
Mrs Rupert is on record as saying “I remember thinking, oh well that is just too bad and he will never race.” We now know that that “unlucky” incident cancelled his sales chances and was replaced with an unimaginably “lucky” and fairytale outcome for Drakenstein whose journey has been laced with good fortune rather than luck as further explained by Mrs Rupert. “We’ve been so lucky, all of our great horses could not be sold. Charles Dickens could not be sold, because he displaced his palate and he still does it, but it just doesn’t bother him in running. Safe Passage didn’t reach his reserve. Trip Of Fortune didn’t reach his reserve. So those are our four big horses. I have just been so lucky.”
“Luck” aside the fascination of this pen goes into what explains a horse and its racing achievement. So lets park luck to one side and continue the search …….
We all know now how good a sire Trippi is. He was not an outstanding racehorse but rather a well above average one with only 1 G1 win to his name and another 5 of his 14 runs being G2 and G3 wins. Good yes, brilliant no.
He comes from a bloodline that perhaps caught many a little off-guard except for one pedigree maestro who has been instrumental in SA bloodlines and whose genius was not fooled. Charles Faull is the man responsible for Trippi being in SA, the most expensive stallion to arrive on these shores at the time and now proven to be worth far more than his price for the bloodline upgrade and champions he has afforded SA.
Because we are advised that the parental contribution is 50:50 to their progeny, we must investigate the other 50% – the female pedigree. Whether the genetic contribution from each parent is actually a maximum of 50% is still under much debate and scientific study and there is a theory of thought that it can exceed that number and, in many instances, a pre-potent gene can dominate a mating more than 50%. This is a debate for another time.
The dam line through Sea Point back to Compass Point is decent but certainly not sufficient to conclude that it is likely to produce a July winner, unless one firmly believes that luck alone is responsible.
Female Pedigree Analysis
Sea Point, bred by the Tawny Syndicate, was a mediocre racehorse with 6 runs for a single win over 1000m from her first runs and 5 poor runs subsequent to that. As a broodmare she has produced 7 foals, 4 runners, all winners of a few including 2 Gr 1 stakes winners. Her other Gr 1 stakes winner, Sand And Sea (Twice Over), won the Gr 1 Gold Medallion over 1200m.
Her bloodline by Spectrum out of Compass Point (Model Man) is interesting.
Compass Point (Model Man x Manuka by Rainbow Dream) was a 17 run 4win 4 places racehorse with all of her races in the lowest divisions and all over the short distances. No bells here. As a broodmare she was successful with 7 foals, 6 runners and 5 winners one of which was a single G1 stakes winner – Pointing North. However, that single Gr 1 win was an outstanding victory in the Cape Guineas at which point he was sold to race in the USA.
In WINCHESTER MANSION we have a son of a very decent 1400m performing sire out of a female line whose glimpses of top performance are over speed distances.
Being a Gr1 victor over 2200m is not glaringly apparent in his pedigree, despite Trippi having produced the like of Gr 1 Champions Challenge winner Deo Juvente, Met winner and July third-placed Jet Dark and useful stayer Crome Yellow.
Winchester Mansion’s career started with a surprise but heart-warming bang, considering his misfortune as a yearling, winning over 1250m in September 2021 but not a surprise from his bloodline perspective. He then ran a bit flat for his next few for a few places in minor races and over a little more ground around that which his sire displayed performance. Without much further success he was then thrown into a decent field over a G3 1800m, a distance which looked to be beyond his genetic breeding and seemingly a tall ask of his ability.
This appears to have been his turning point which quite possibly caused his connections to say something like “what have we here!” He ran a very credible from-behind 2nd which required him to check, threaten his finishing position and switch inwards as the winner closed him off on the rail. It was an eye-catching and hugely improved performance.
He then immediately confirmed that last run with a very good win in another G3 but this time over 2400m and, it seems, the rest is history.
In conclusion to explain WINCHESTER MANSION it must be that the Drakenstein Brains-Trust applied the very same detailed study they do for all the covers they plan and found acceptable promise in what they saw at the time. That decision could not have been put down to chance but rather a faith and confidence in the way they assess the pedigrees and ultimately decide to bring into union. Their breeding formula continues to present champion racehorses and, very importantly for SA Racing, construct bloodlines that will be very valuable and important into the future.
We don’t know what Mrs Rupert and Kevin Sommerville identified exactly when they elected to cover Sea Point with Trippi however the proof stands before us a July Handicap winner and that should be sufficient explanation. His success answers the many questions we may have.
This pen is still unsettled in its search for a sound pedigree explanation for the success of WINCHESTER MANSION. Without any intended disrespect to the connections and Sire, it is clear that this fairytale certainly does contain a very large slice of luck and is far from over. It has only just begun.
(Editor:
*It is interesting to note that Trip Of Fortune is from the same family as Winchester Mansion and at the weights he was the third best performed horse in Saturday’s Hollywoodbets Durban July
*Also interesting to note is that Sea Point’s last sales progeny went for just R75,000 sold to John Freeman at the BSA August Two-year-old Sale and that colt was by July-producing sire Twice Over, although this colt’s full-brother was of course Sand And Sea, the Grade 1-winning sprinter. Has John Freeman picked up another Legislate! (who was purchased for R100,000). Justin Snaith is training this Twice Over colt and Jonathan Snaith commented, “He is quite backward. Taking time. Big colt and just needs a lot of patience.”
