Mrs Geriatrix with Sean Tarry and sons, Richard Fourie and the Magical Lady Syndicate (JC Photos).
Gregg Clarke
It has been said that racehorse breeding is a “little bit of knowledge and a large slice of luck” but is this true?
When the highly respected Clifton Stud Team of Peter and Jenny Blyth and Stud Manager Christine Quinn sat down in the hills overlooking Rosetta in the KZN Midlands on Saturday 29 April, so too was an excited Lady Syndicate trackside Turffontein to watch their common interest Mrs Geriatrix take
on her greatest challenge so far.
And what a victory it was for this little filly that no doubt caused the ground to shake in both the wider Rosetta and Johannesburg simultaneously.
As acclaimed and cool as he is, it also probably caused Sean Tarry to exhale a long breath of relief not having to contend with an expectant team of ladies from the Magical Lady Syndicate in a moment of possible disappointment.
It was a joyous moment for many and watching those ladies unable to contain their excitement was a real treat to the human eye. It was a step forward for SA Horseracing as much as it was a victory for Syndication as an Ownership Model in South Africa following the recent successes of The Centenary
Club in Cape Town and Gqeberha based Halo Syndicate.
As the dust settles, the obvious question is SO WHY IS THIS LITTLE FILLY AS GOOD AS SHE IS
PROVING TO BE AND WHAT WAS IT THAT LED PETER BLYTH AT CLIFTON STUD TO SELECT THIS
MATING? Is it because of “luck”?
The fillies race journey to here is impressive and rings a little, although premature to claim, of the Charles Dickens story. She has run and won her first 3 races in eye catching fashion, with the last 2 being a Listed race and now this Grade 2 against very good others, arguably one up on Charles D.
Her Dam VELVET GLOVE, although a racehorse that “tripped over her own feet” in the words of all at Clifton, is a full sister to Roy Magners equally-little Champion Sprinter PRINCE OF KAHAL, now retired to the Stud of his birth, so it was believed that VELVET GLOVE must carry a more than decent racing
gene in her.
Add Vercingetorix into the mix and say no more.
Taking the above 2 factors into consideration it’s not difficult to see why Peter Blyth arrived at his decision. For the Breeder there could have been nothing else done to present the market with a horse of great potential.
What must surely still be a bit sour for the Breeder is that she could not fetch her R200k Reserve in the 2022 BSA National Yearling Sales Ring and walked out unsold. Buyers allowed themselves to once again be duped by the small physical specimen in front of them rather than having done their
homework. It was only a post-ring approach from a mildly interested Sean Tarry that saw her follow him home at her Reserve Price. Whilst that sale was a disappointment for Clifton the performance of MRS GERATRIX will surely command better respect from Buyers when her dam’s future progeny
enter the Sales Ring.
A Deep Pedigree Analyst responsible for the breeding of a number of racehorses and quality broodmares including the likes of Sofala and Hawker Hunter offers important pointers in the pedigree of MRS GERIATRIX as follows “She has a strong 3rd dam that includes judicious inbreeding to some quality broodmare sires where combinations of these and/or other common ancestors or bloodlines can be found across her dam’s pedigree. This line breeding is also found in the dam of
Vercingetorix, enhancing Mrs Geriatrix as a prominent race filly.
The 2 assessment factors of physicality/conformation AND what is happening in the deep pedigree are a powerful symbiotic force. A horse with high racing performance probability is founded with these 2 factors being present and not merely one or the other, which reduces performance probability substantially. Not impossible for “freaks” to come along occasionally but It is seldom found that a good horse comes from the exception of only one of these factors being satisfied.
Instead the converse (i.e. need both factors to be ticked) is found in many a good racehorse and Buyers must be cognisant of this.
An analogy is that a visually pleasing motor vehicle doesn’t necessarily win the rally or race, rather what sits deep under the hood and in its chassis provides the probability to do exactly that. A good Driver and Support Team seals the deal. In horseracing there is no prizemoney for the prettiness or
physical magnificence of a horse and external size is not the ultimate factor. The “heart” (i.e. what’s under the hood and in the “chassis” is far more important and thereafter what follows – training, jockeyship, correct distance etc that seals the deal.
But the latter is incredibly difficult if the former 2 symbiotic factors are absent or only partly evident.
It seems sensible that the racehorse breeding success formula is principally a healthy slice of Knowledge + a larger slice of Experience (itself dependent on a large slice of Intuition) + a mere sprinkling of luck.
“Luck” is closely associated with the word “chance” and that is more linked to a Lottery or Lucky Draw. The breeding of racehorses can surely never be in the same sentence as these and if it is indeed at the mercy of “luck” and “chance” then this industry would not exist and must be considered one of the greatest con the world has ever known. All racehorse lovers know this is not true.
The only luck that comes into play is for a Breeder to be rewarded for quality by Buyers, the horse to be well managed, to remain sound and have luck in running. That’s the only luck there can be.
Buyers need to be more trusting of the significance and inter-relationship of these 2 critical probability indicators and guard themselves against the human folly of being heavily influenced by “eye candy” especially when a horse with Mrs Geratrix’s credentials walks into a Sales Ring.
So is the claim of “large slice of luck” the major determining factor some may suggest?
In the opinion of the writer that cannot be further from the truth.
