Gold Circle
RACE 1:
1) Improved last start and well drawn.
2) Should improve for the step up in trip but has a wide draw.
3) Having 68th run but honest and distance suited.
4) Disappointing sort and drop in trip from good draw could help.
5) Two poor runs.
6) Should improve over this step up in trip.
7) Fine Highveld debut and is the one to beat.
8) Has been facing better and will enjoy the step up in trip.
Selection: 7-8-1-2-3-6
Preview: SHIKOKU (7) went close on her Highveld debut and the rest of the field were well beaten. NATIONAL STAR (8) has been facing stronger and will enjoy the step up in trip. HIGH FLYBY (1) improved last time and is well drawn. MAYENNE (2) can go close if showing expected improvement for the step up in trip but a wide draw is a concern. OCEAN’S PRIDE (3) has her 68th start but is honest and can earn. CHASING HEART (6) should improve over this trip and has a fair draw. (David Thiselton 7-8-1-2-3-6)
RACE 2:
1) Enjoys this trip, wide draw is a concern.
2) Steps up to a more suitable trip, drawn in pole and can win if reproducing best Cape Town form.
3) Would prefer further and tough draw but can earn.
4) Improving and drawn well over suitable trip.
5) Useful form from handy positions and chance over ideal trip if overcoming draw.
6) Improved last time over this trip but has a tough draw.
7) Uninspiring form in three runs to date.
8) Moderate KZN form
9) Moderate form
10) Poor form
11) Can improve on fair debut
12) Well beaten last time out in November over 1600m but form has worked out well.
13) Moderate KZN debut and not seen since July.
14) By Ideal World out of Rich Man’s Gold half-sister to Met winner Martial Eagle
15) Well beaten on debut but might enjoy step up in trip and could improve.
16) Moderate third last time but should enjoy step up in trip.
Selection: 2-5-14-4-11-1-3
Preview: VENGEANCE FOREVER (2) is drawn in pole and if reproducing his best Cape Town form can win. ALABASTER (5) has a form chance over an ideal trip but a wide draw is a concern. CLIMATE CONTROL (14) is well bred and has Fourie up albeit from a tough draw. SEA OF GALILEE (4) has a form chance from a good draw. FREE WYLIE (11) can improve after a fair debut. FORWARD SPELL (1) enjoys this trip but has a tricky draw. JAIPUR JEWEL (3) has the ability to win but is widely dawn and it is on the sharp side. (2-5-14-4-11-1-3)
RACE 3:
1) Capable but has a wide draw and big weight.
2) Lowered merit rating and 1.5kg will help him bounce back. Tricky draw.
3) Easiest task for some time and has fair draw with Fourie up.
4) Form chance but detractor is wide draw.
5) Form chance but also has a wide draw.
6) Has ability and good draw over suitable trip, can bounce back.
7) Disappointing last two runs, needs to bounce back.
8) Drawn in pole over an ideal trip, might enjoy the faster ground.
9) Fine form for new yard, will appreciate drop back in trip.
10) Good run last time from wide draw, now has good draw.
11) Has a form chance and good draw with feather weight.
Selection: 11-10-6-8-9-5
Preview: CITY BY THE SEA (11) sneaks into the handicap with the minimum weight and has a form chance from a good draw. WILLOW EXPRESS has his easiest task for some time and has a fair draw over a suitable trip. FIGHT SONG (10) ran well last time from a wide draw and is now drawn well and has a low weight. THEORY OF FLIGHT (6) is better than his last start and Khumalo rides. LEOPOLD (8) is drawn in pole and has the ability to do well over this course and distance. BACK TO BLACK (9) will enjoy the step back in trip and has fine form for his new yard. IRISH TRACTOR (5) has the form to be a runner but has a tough draw. (David Thiselton 11-10-6-8-9-5)
RACE 4:
1) First run back from winning Grade 1 Cape Flying Championship, drawn on right side.
2) His penultimate start signaled a welcome return to form but he then disappointed.
3) Top class on his day and should be cherry ripe but low draw is a concern.
4) Has some good form over this trip, looks to be Peter yard elect.
5) Best weighted and quite a nice high draw, deserves a win.
6) Needs a good break to make use of fine early pace and to overcome number 1 draw
7) Only has half-a-length to find on True To Life on same terms.
8) Low draw and would prefer further these days
9) Has ability and not out of it.
10) Useful form over this trip, drawn on right side.
Selections: 5-1-7-10-3-4-9
Preview: TRUE TO LIFE (5) is the best weighted and has a nice high draw. BOHICA (1) won the Grade 1 Cape Flying Championship and is drawn on the right side but this is his first run back from Cape Town. CAPTAIN OUPIE (7) has just half-a-length to find with True To Life on the same terms. KWITE A TRIP (10) is drawn on the right side and has some good form over this trip. EDEN ROC (3) has his third run after a layoff and if producing best can go close but low draw is a concern by trends. WINTER STORIES (4) looks to be the Peter yard elect and has some good form over this trip. GODSWOOD (9) cannot be ignored as one who has always struck as having plenty of ability. (David Thiselton 5-1-7-10-3-4-9)
RACE 5:
1) Has the ability and joint best-weighted , must bounce back from a below par run.
2) Top form as a juvenile and young three-year-old, better than last start.
3) Joint Best-weighted, Fine chance if repeating penultimate win, first run back from Cape Town.
4) Capable of being right there but low draw is disadvantageous by trends.
5) Hasn’t lived up to expectations, tough task at the weights.
6) Joint best-weighted, chance if repeating penultimate start.
7) Pace and ability to stay on, number one draw tough by trends.
8) Officially worst weighted but unexposed and looks full of ability.
Selection: 2-8-3-7-6-1
Preview: MASTER ARCHIE (2) disappointed last time but can make amends although the low draw is a slight concern. CLEAVER GREENE (8) is officially out at the weights but looks full of promise and can rise above his 90 merit rating. SOUND OF WARNING (3) has a shout if the trip to Cape Town did not take too much out of her. ALULA’S STAR (7) has pace and the ability to stay on but the number one draw is a concern by trends. REMEMBER WHEN (6) is drawn on the right side and can make her presence felt. ALESIAN CHIEF (1) is capable but will have to bounce back from a disappointing run last time. (David Thiselton 2-8-3-7-6-1 )
RACE 6:
1) Reserves best for target race and this is on the sharp side but might outclass them.
2) Should get the good pace he needs and will finish strongly.
3) Courageous and fast ground and a good draw will help him get trip.
4) Has a shout if repeating excellent Allied Steelrode-Onamission Mile win over C&D
5) Big and rangy but this is on the sharp side.
6) Disappointed last time but has a shout if reproducing fast finishing third in Grade 1 Gold Challenge.
7) Tough task at the weights
8) Continually winds up the pace in front and interesting after seemingly successful wind op.
9) Has been disappointing this season and needs to step up.
10) Tough task at the weights.
11) Full of promise and course and distance looks ideal.
12) Has a chance if repeating WSB Gauteng Guineas second.
Selection: 1-2-11-4-3
Preview: KOMMETDIEDING (1) usually reserves his best for his target race which will be his next start but this is his easiest task for sometime and he has a good draw, although the trip is on the sharp side for him. AL MUTHANA (2) should get the good pace that suits him from Warrior’s Rest and should run on strongly. CAPTAIN LANNISTER (11) has class and is drawn in pole over an ideal trip. BINGWA (4) can go close if finding cover from a tricky draw. MK’S PRIDE (3) is slightly stretched by the trip but the fast conditions gives this courageous sort a chance. (David Thiselton 1-2-11-4-3)
RACE 7:
1) Classy and looks likely to see out the trip.
2) By Stamina influencing sire and hints of class.
3) By stamina influencing sire and was unlucky when staying on in SA Fillies Classic.
4) Stayed on well for second in Oaks Trial over 2000m.
5) Cherry Ripe and should enjoy trip, big step up.
6) Third over 2400m last, big step up.
7) Well beaten fourth in Oaks Trial, not certain to stay.
8) Won Oaks Trial, tougher task, might stay.
9) Proven over trip, big step up in class
10) Well beaten in Oaks Trial, faces winner on same terms
Selection: 1-3-5-2-4
Preview: RAIN IN HOLLAND (1) outclasses the field and should stay the trip. ETERNITY RING (3) was unlucky when staying on in the SA Fillies Classic and is by a stamina influencing sire. EVENING PRIMROSE (5) is big and rangy and should stay the trip on pedigree. CLAFOUTIS (2) has shown hints of class and is by a stamina influencing sire. PRINCESS KESH (4) just failed in the Oaks Trial and is 3kg better off with the winner and drawn in pole. (David Thiselton 1-3-5-2-4)
RACE 8:
1) Grade 1 SA Classic winner, speedy sire but plenty of stamina from dam
2) By speed sire Rafeef but stamina from dam and runs as if he will stay.
3) By three-times SA Derby producer Silvano but speedy female line.
4) Scopey Soft Falling Rain colt and half-brother to SA Derby winner Out Of Your League
5) Litigation by twice SA Derby producing sire Greys Inn and won good Derby pointer race.
6) Hard task with Litigation at the weight but will see out trip.
7) Won 2400m handicap impressively albeit with a light weight.
8) Tough task at the weights, looks held.
9) Big step up in class and trip.
Selection: 5-1-7-6-2-4
Preview: LITIGATION (5) will be attempting to be the third Derby Trial winner to win the SA Derby in the last ten years and he has all the credentials but does have a tough draw. RED SAXON (1) has class and considering his sibling by speed sire Seventh Rock won over 2600m he has a chance of staying despite being by sprint–miler Red Ray. LONDON ROADS (7) has a plum draw and won full of running over 2400m last time, albeit with a light weight in na handicap. TABEBUIA (6) has a tough task at the weights with Litigation on 2000m form but looks likely to stay all dat. ARAGOSTA (2) has struck as one who is looking for a trip and although by speed influence Rafeef he is out of a Galileo mare. ZEUS (4) is a big, rangy half-brother to SA Derby winner Out Of Your League. (David Thiselton 5-1-7-6-2-4)
RACE 9:
1) Taken time to recover from a rough Gold Cup and now goes over his right trip.
2) Can be dangerous from the front but others jockeys are now wary of him.
3) Gold Cup winner who can still progress.
4) Has taken well to staying trips and finishes well over 2400m, tries further.
5) Consistently prominent over staying trips and officially the best weighted runner.
6) 4.5kg under sufferance with Smoking Hot but not yet have shown his best
7) On official merit ratings has a tough task but on some lines of form has a shout.
8) On official merit ratings very tough task but stays well and coming into her own.
Selection: 3-5-4-6-1
Preview: NEBRAAS (3) won the Gold Cup, albeit with a light weight, and with the probable best big race jockey in the country aboard can prove he still has more to come. SMOKING HOT (5) is consistent and as officially the best weighted runner has an easier task than last time which was under handicap conditions. GREEN HAZE (4) has done well over 2400m and Chase Maujean knows how to get the best from him so is interesting stepped up further in trip. BLACK THORN (6) is 4,5kg under sufferance with Smoking Hot but has probably not yet shown his best. AFRICAN ADVENTURE (1) needed time to recover from a rough Gold Cup where he rapped a tendon and now for the first time since he runs over the trip best suited to him although he does have a big weight to carry and is 3.5kg under sufferance with Smoking Hot. (David Thiselton 3-5-4-6-1)
RACE 10:
1) High in the handicap and tries a drop back to a distance that looks sharper than ideal . Tricky Draw.
2) Won twice recently but still well handicapped on best form and fair draw over suitable C & D.
3) Will enjoy the faster ground and could be dangerous from the front. Wide draw.
4) Drawn in pole can go close if repeating last run over C & D.
5) Won second time out after a year’s layoff, talented and can follow up.
6) Disappointing sort who hasn’t won for over two years, lowered merit rating will help.
7) Progressive and distance suited and well drawn.
8) Last win was over this trip and fairly well weighted, wide draw.
9) Last win was over this trip well drawn and fairly weighted.
10) Has run on well over shorter, interesting runner.
11) Last win was around the turn and is now well drawn.
12) Returns from layoff, suitable trip tough draw.
Selection: 9-7-5-4-10-11
Preview: DUKE OF SUSSEX (9) is a promising sort who can still improve and he steps back down to the trip of his last win. ADMIRAL DOOLEY (7) is a progressive sort and has a plum draw over an ideal trip. INVINCIBLE WARRIOR (5) has his third run after a year long layoff and having won a good race last time can follow up over a suitable trip. FANTASTICAL (4) is well regarded and drawn in pole over an ideal trip. FATEFUL DAY (10) has likely been sent to Johannesburg because the long straighted tracks would suit him better but he does have a tough draw over a trip he should stay. BEY SUYAY’S (11) last win was around the turn so going back to a turn from a good draw could see him put his last run behind him. (David Thiselton 9-7-5-4-10-11 )
Bipot (R162)
Leg 1: 2,5,14
Leg 2: 11,10,6
Leg 3: 5,1,7
Leg 4: 2,8,3
Leg 5: 1,2
Leg 6: 1
Place Accumulator: (R216)
Leg 1: 11,10,6
Leg 2: 5,1,7
Leg 3: 2,8,3
Leg 4: 1,2
Leg 5: 1
Leg 6: 5,1
Leg 7: 3,5
Pick 6: (R2520)
Leg 1: 5,1,7,10,3,4,9
Leg 2: 2,8,3,7,6,1
Leg 3: 1,2
Leg 4: 1
Leg 5: 5,1,7,6,2,4
Leg 6: 3,5,4,6,1
Jackpot: (R72)
Leg 1: 2,8,3,7,6,1
Leg 2: 1,2
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 5,1,7,6,2,4
Best Bet:
Race 2: 2
Value Bet:
Race 5: 2
Picture: Litigation (JC Photos)
