The Hollywoodbets Durban July weights seem set in stone too most at present, but the Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge on June 10 could bring about a dramatic change to that structure and so could the supplementing of either Charles Dickens or Al Muthana before the final supplementary stage on June 13
There are still two or three scenarios that could have a dramatic effect on the Hollywoodbets Durban July weight structure:
- Al Muthana or Charles Dickens is used as the line horse in the Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge and a July entry runs close to him.
- Charles Dickens is supplemented into the race.
- Al Muthana is supplemented into the race.
Scenario 1 has a realistic chance of happening.
One person who will hope it does not happen is Piere Strydom, because it might scupper his chances of riding See It Again in the big race.
Strydom has said he would not be able to ride in the July at any weight lower than 57kg.
Al Muthana and Charles Dickens have very real chances of being made the line horse in the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge. After all Al Muthana has won two Gr 1 weight for age races over a mile … you can hardly get more consistent form than that when looking for a line horse in a Gr 1 wfa mile … and Charles Dickens record over a mile is ultra consistent.
The July entries among the Gold Challenge entry list are:
Do It Again (124), Safe Passage (124), Zapatillas (122), Cousin Casey (122), Rascallion (122), Shoemaker (114).
All of them risk being raised if either Al Muthana or Charles Dickens is made the line horse and they finish close to that line horse.
If one of the three-year-olds among that lot gets raised to the exclusion of the others it will be good news for Strydom.
Let’s assume Cousin Casey is raised to 132, because that would be the same as scenario 2) i.e. the 132-rated Charles Dickens being supplemented.
If a three-year-old rated 132 is thrown into the current weight structure, call him Charles Dickens, then he would be the highest net merit rated horse in the race on 128 an the weights would have to be structured around him.
He would initially be given 60kg, Safe Passage and Do It Again (124 net) would be given 58kg, See It Again (120 net) would be given 56kg, Dave The King and Cousin Casey (118 net) would be given 55kg and Without Question (116 net) would be given 54kg.
However, the clause about three-year-olds not being allowed to carry more than 57kg would then come into it and Charles Dickens would be dropped to 57kg.
The topweights Do It Again and Safe Passage would then be 58kg.
Therefore, they will have to be dragged up 2kg to 60kg.
The rest of the field would have to be dragged up accordingly, so Do It Again and Safe Passage would end up on 60kg, Charles Dickens would end up on 59kg, See It Again on 58kg, Cousin Casey and Dave The King on 57kg and Without Question on 56kg.
This would be a bad news scenario for the bottom weights like Pacaya, who at present is sneaking into the handicap with 53kg.
He would have to carry 55kg, while the bottom weighted females would have to carry 54kg.
If an older horse, Safe Passage for example, gets a significant raise by running close to or beating Al Muthana and the rest don’t then it could scupper the chances of Strydom riding See It Again.
Let’s assume Safe Passage is raised to 133, because that would be the same as scenario 3) i.e. Al Muthana being supplemented.
Safe Passage would then carry 60kg and as things stand Do It Again would carry 55.5kg, See It Again would carry 53.5kg, and Cousin Casey, Dave The King and Without Question would all carry the minimum weight for a three-year-old of 53kg and would all be under sufferance, the first pair by half-a-kilogram and Without Question by 1,5kg.
Below are the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Durban July weights as they currently stand (merit rating order):
Do It Again (8G) 124 60kg
Safe Passage (4G) 124 60kg
See It Again (3C) 124 57kg
Pomp And Power (4G) 123 59.5kg
Puerto Manzano (ARG) 123 59.5kg
Cousin Casey (3C) 122 57kg
Dave The King (3C) 122 57kg
Rascallion (5G) 122 59kg
Zapatillas (4C) 122 59kg
Rain In Holland (4F) 120 58kg
Second Base (5G) 120 58kg
Without Question (3G) 120 56kg
Billy Bowlegs (3C) 118 55kg
Nebraas (6G) 117 56.5kg
Silver Darling (4F) 117 56.5kg
Time Flies (4F) 117 56.5kg
Jimmy Don (3C) 116 56kg
Union Square (3C) 116 54kg
Son Of Raj (3G) 115 53.5kg
Aragosta (4G) 114 55kg
Shoemaker (3G) 114 53kg
Litigation (4C) 112 54kg
East Coast (3C) 111 53kg
Airways Law (5G) 110 53kg
Pacaya (4G) 110 53kg
Quasiforsure (4G) 110 53kg
Bless My Stars (3F) 109 52kg
Rockpool (3G) 109 53kg
Rule By Force (3C) 108 53kg
Pyromaniac (4G) 106 53kg
Electric Gold (3C) 103 53kg
Flying Bull (5G) 103 53kg
King Regent (3G) 103 53kg
Winchester Mansion (4G) 103 53kg
Cape Eagle (5G) 100 53kg
Raiseahallelujah (5G) 99 53kg
Future Prince (4G) 96 53kg