The Hollywoodbets Durban July weights seem set in stone too most at present, but the Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge on June 10 could bring about a dramatic change to that structure and so could the supplementing of either Charles Dickens or Al Muthana before the final supplementary stage on June 13  

There are still two or three scenarios that could have a dramatic effect on the Hollywoodbets Durban July weight structure:

The July entries among the Gold Challenge entry list are:

Do It Again (124), Safe Passage (124), Zapatillas (122), Cousin Casey (122), Rascallion (122), Shoemaker (114).

All of them risk being raised if either Al Muthana or Charles Dickens is made the line horse and they finish close to that line horse.

If one of the three-year-olds among that lot gets raised to the exclusion of the others it will be good news for Strydom.

Let’s assume Cousin Casey is raised to 132, because that would be the same as scenario 2) i.e. the 132-rated Charles Dickens being supplemented.

If a three-year-old rated 132 is thrown into the current weight structure, call him Charles Dickens, then he would be the highest net merit rated horse in the race on 128 an the weights would have to be structured around him.

He would initially be given 60kg, Safe Passage and Do It Again (124 net) would be given 58kg, See It Again (120 net) would be given 56kg, Dave The King and Cousin Casey (118 net) would be given 55kg and Without Question (116 net) would be given 54kg.

However, the clause about three-year-olds not being allowed to carry more than 57kg would then come into it and Charles Dickens would be dropped to 57kg.

The topweights Do It Again and Safe Passage would then be 58kg.

Therefore, they will have to be dragged up 2kg to 60kg.

The rest of the field would have to be dragged up accordingly, so Do It Again and Safe Passage would end up on 60kg, Charles Dickens would end up on 59kg, See It Again on 58kg, Cousin Casey and Dave The King on 57kg and Without Question on 56kg.

This would be a bad news scenario for the bottom weights like Pacaya, who at present is sneaking into the handicap with 53kg.

He would have to carry 55kg, while the bottom weighted females would have to carry 54kg.      

If an older horse, Safe Passage for example, gets a significant raise by running close to or beating Al Muthana and the rest don’t then it could scupper the chances of Strydom riding See It Again.

Let’s assume Safe Passage is raised to 133, because that would be the same as scenario 3) i.e. Al Muthana being supplemented.

Safe Passage would then carry 60kg and as things stand Do It Again would carry 55.5kg, See It Again would carry 53.5kg, and Cousin Casey, Dave The King and Without Question would all carry the minimum weight for a three-year-old of 53kg and would all be under sufferance, the first pair by half-a-kilogram and Without Question by 1,5kg.

Below are the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Durban July weights as they currently stand (merit rating order):