The most surprising statistic of July winners this century is that in only two renewals did the winner even take part in the Gold Challenge (on both of those occasions the winner won the Gold Challenge).
A look at the form of this race and the July reveals the probable reason it is a relatively unprolific July pointer – firstly the Gold Challenge is often one by a specialist miler and secondly horses who go close in this race invariably have to carry big weights in the July.
The statistics of this race would back up a view that the July is invariably won by either a top three-year-old or an under-the-radar older horse whose trainer has been able to protect his or her weight.
In the latter case the trainer is almost certainly going to avoid the Gold Challenge, because the horse will run the risk of a big merit rating hike if finishing close to a highly merit rated star.
The specialist milers who have won the Gold Challenge this century, or at least horses whose best trip was a mile, include Winter Solstice (2005), National Spirit (2006), Variety Club (2012, 2013), Captain America (2017) and Undercover Agent (2018).
Almost all of the other Gold Challenge winners not already mentioned had to either carry big weights in the July or avoided the big race.
The 2021 Gold Challenge winner Rainbow Bridge carried topweight of 60kg in the July and finished a 5,75 length 8th,
The 2020 Gold Challenge winner Rainbow Bridge carried topweight of 60kg in the July and finished a 2,90 length sixth,
The 2019 winner Do It Again carried topweight of 60kg in the July and is responsible for one of two instances this century where a horse who has run in the Gold Challenge has won the July.
2016 Gold Challenge winner Mac De Lago carried 59,5kg in the July and finished a 2,20 length 3rd.
2015 Gold Challenge winner Legislate didn’t run in the July.
2014 Gold Challenge winner King Of Pain carried topweight of 60kg in the July and finished a 5,80 length 10th).
The 2011 Gold Challenge winner Dancewithhthedevil ran in the Garden Province on July day.
The 2010 Gold Challenge winner Big City Life missed the July through injury.
The 2009 Gold Challenge winner Pocket Power carried topweight of 60kg in the July and finished a 2,85 length 5th.
The 2008 Gold Challenge winner Dancer’s Daughter carried 53kg in the July and dead-heated with the 58kg topweight Pocket Power, who had finished a 1,50 length fourth in the Gold ChallengeIt should be noted that in 2007, and perhaps years prior to that too, the July weights were set before the Gold Challenge. The 2007 Gold Challenge winner Succesful Bidder won the Gold Challenge when rated 108 and was given a four point increase to 112, so was therefore well-in by 2kg in the July. There is an argument that this system should be reverted to because it will ensure all of the best horses run in the Gold Challenge. For example, last year Got The Greenlight found himself potentially well weighted for the July and therefore avoided running in the Gold Challenge. Nevertheless, the Gold Challenge list of winners from 2007 and before, who have not yet been mentioned, are shown below.
2007 Gold Challenge winner Succesful Bidder carried 55kg in the July and finished a 0,90 length 6th.
2004 Gold Challenge winner Yard-Arm carried 58kg topweight in the July and finished 9th at odds of 8/10.
2003 Gold Challenge winner Set Afire carried 54,5kg in the July and finished a 6,9 length 12th.
2002 Gold Challenge winner Free My Heart didn’t run in the July.
2001 Gold Challenge winner Celtic Grove carried 51,5kg in the July as a three-year-old and finished a 1,25 length 2nd.
2000 Gold Challenge winner Free My Heart carried 56kg in the July and finished a 1,60 length 3rd.
This year’s Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge favourite Jet Dark (Trippi) has two facts against him in the July i.e. He will have to prove he gets the 2200m and he will have to carry topweight.
However, he does have one thing in his favour – like Pocket Power, Dancer’s Daughter and Do It Again, he is a superstar, a dual winner of the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate.
The second favourite Linebacker (Captain Of All) will find this mile a touch sharp and is likely to come on from the run. He failed to win the July off a 124 merit rating last year, although he did go close, and has to do it off a 126 this year as things stand.
All of the rest of Saturday’s Gold Challenge runners, Silver Operator (Silvano), Al Muthana (Deep Field), MK’s Pride (Willow Magic), Prince Of Fire (Gimmethegreenlight), Russian Rock (Pomodoro), Crown Towers (Camelot), Supreme Warrior (Vercingetorix), Bingwa (Pathfork), Eden Roc (Var) and Chimichuri Run (Trippi) are either not entered in the July or still have to prove they stay the July trip.
Picture: Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge favourite Jet Dark (Wayne Marks).
