HERE is our Cape Fillies Guineas Preview as it appeared in Friday’s Turf Talk Newsletter, in which we mostly carry news and previews that don’t appear on our website. To subscribe, go here.
THERE is no single outstanding filly in Saturday’s Gr1 World Sports Betting Cape Fillies Guineas (R1-million) at Kenilworth. They are all outstanding.
This is a terrific renewal of SA’s standard-setting race for classic fillies and the winner, who can actually come from any of the 15 runners, will be something truly special.
They’ve all been impressive in winning, and even placing to older horses in Handicaps and Conditions races, and there is plenty of close collateral form, which makes it near impossible to sort the wheat from the chaff considering different levels of improvement.
They’re at level weights, of course, and if one were to treat this as a Graduation Plate between same-age, same-sex runners, the handicapper’s ratings make it a lot easier to select a winner. In theory!
At the ratings, one can narrow it down to Querari Falcon and She’s A Giver (104), and their closest-rated rivals Sail (102), Final Judgement and Maleficent (99) and Safe Harbour (97), ignoring the 95-rated runners and down with an argument that 9 MR points and more is a safe cushion for exotics.
That will be an easy way out, and it may work, but there is so much appeal about the bottom-rated talents Smokey Affair (86) and Lady Of The House (80) that this, for exotic bettors, is a “field” leg, period.
The head says it’s a race between the top six, the heart says that an unbeaten Dynasty filly out of star mare Overarching (Lady Of The House) must pose a serious danger on pedigree and expected improvement alone, even off the lowest rating.
We will stay, however, with the top-rated, and the choice is Gavin Lerena’s mount She’s A Giver, whose trainer Johan Janse Van Vuuren described her as an “extremely talented filly” after her victory in the Gr3 Starling Stakes over 1400m on Charity Mile Day.
She’s A Giver made second-place Maleficent look pretty ordinary that day – and Maleficent carries strong collaterals in this race – an indication that Janse Van Vuuren’s charge is the one who may rise to this occasion as the real star of her generation, even from a wide draw.
Photo: She’s A Giver winning her Maiden, Greyville, 17 June.